5 pressing climate questions for a 2nd Trump term

Donald Trump’s victory Tuesday is returning him to the White House for a second term starting in January, and the shifts in climate policy at the federal level will be dramatic — and discouraging. Here are some critical questions to focus on as sustainability professionals try to grasp what lies ahead.

How will the Inflation Reduction Act fare? 

Cutting Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funding has been one of Trump’s clear election promises. While there’s likely to be pushback from Republican states benefiting from billions of IRA dollars, the commercialization of renewable energy technologies is likely on the chopping block. Specifically, Department of Energy-based offices such as the Loans Program Office and the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy will likely be severely reduced or eliminated altogether. Both offices serve to decrease the risk for venture capital funds and institutional investors of funding and commercializing renewable energy technology and thus lowering the barriers to its mass adoption.

What will happen with the SEC corporate disclosure mandate?

In March, the Securities and Exchange Commission released a nationwide corporate disclosure rule requiring publicly traded companies to disclose Scope 1 and 2 emissions to increase transparency for prospective investors. In April, the SEC paused the rollout of its rule in response to legal disputes raised in opposition. The chances of a nationwide mandate climate disclosure requirement being enacted is zero. But that doesn’t mean companies can or should halt all work on data gathering and reporting. California’s 2023 Climate Corporate Data Accountability Act and Climate-Related Financial Risk Act and the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) still exist and require companies to disclose Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions beginning as soon as 2025.

Will fossil fuel development increase?

Probably. But a lack of permitting reform cuts both ways. Building new fossil fuel plants, whether coal, natural gas or “brown” hydrogen production, requires the developer to receive a federal permit. The permitting backlog that is often cited as inhibiting clean energy development will also negatively affect the speedy construction of fossil fuels.

What about nuclear power?

Nuclear power has emerged as a rare bipartisan solution to increased power demand from data centers supporting artificial intelligence applications, In July, President Joe Biden signed the ADVANCE Act, a bipartisan pro-nuclear bill that lowered significant barriers restricting new nuclear development and production. Passed by large margins in the House and Senate, the bill is a clear indicator that nuclear power is quickly stepping in to help support the power sector in the U.S.

How will international climate action be affected?

On Trump’s first day in office in 2017, he withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement. Biden reentered the agreement upon taking office, but it’s safe to assume that upon his inauguration, Trump will once again exit. The U.S.’s international position on climate change will reverse again. As the largest economy in the world, the U.S. has an outsized role in shaping climate action by governments internationally. Under the second Trump administration, international climate partnerships and collaboration are likely dead in the water.

Moving forward, sustainability professionals need to remember that maintaining momentum is the primary goal. A Trump White House is a body blow to the climate agenda, but the climate community — at the state and local level and in the private sector — remains a powerful force for change. 

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