2025 is a good year to take stock
Ten years ago this December, the world made a decision that continues to shape corporate action on climate: The 196 countries that adopted the Paris Agreement decreed that global temperature increases should be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The Science Based Targets initiative, established the same year, has since evolved into a critical source of guidance and validation for companies that want to align with that goal, often by targeting net-zero emissions by 2050.
2025 is also the beginning of a period of reckoning.
The SBTi’s net-zero guidelines require companies to set interim targets, many of which are due between now and 2030. Which raises some questions. As we mark the tenth anniversary of Paris, at the midpoint of what’s been called the “decisive decade” for climate, how are companies doing? Are they on track for net zero? If not, why?
That’s why Trellis is launching Chasing Net Zero, a company-by-company effort to answer those questions. The series will examine, using a detailed methodology, how specific businesses, drawn from multiple sectors, are faring on their journey to net zero. We’ll reveal successes, failures and, most importantly, actionable insights we hope will accelerate others’ progress. First up? Nestlé, and how — holes and all — the company is on track for a 50 percent cut in emissions.
What we know: Companies are falling short
Some of the profiles will be sobering.
Last year, Accenture looked at emissions data from the 2,000 largest companies in the world by revenue and found just 16 percent of companies with targets were on track to hit them. The latest numbers from the Net Zero Tracker, an ongoing effort to monitor goal-setting by large businesses and governments, show that 41 percent of companies have no target whatsoever.
It’s no surprise that individual companies are struggling, because few countries have implemented the climate policies needed to hit national net zero targets. Despite the hundreds of billions invested in climate through the Inflation Reduction Act and other legislation, the U.S. is set to miss its interim net-zero milestone in 2030 — and that was before President Trump began dismantling federal support for climate initiatives. Based on targets nations around the world have set for 2030, the planet is headed for 2.6 degrees C of warming, according to the Climate Action Tracker.
Also true: Genuine progress is being made
High-level statistics can obscure examples of genuine progress.
More than 1,800 companies have set net zero targets that align with the SBTi’s guidance. That’s in part because the price of essential enabling technologies such as solar panels and onshore wind turbines has plummeted — by 90 percent and 70 percent, respectively — since the Paris Agreement was signed. And beyond the U.S., many governments continue to pursue climate goals. To cite one recent example: Despite political upheaval in Germany earlier this year, the country’s new governing coalition remains committed to reaching net zero by 2045.
In Chasing Net Zero, we’ll assess how specific companies are navigating these factors and others. We’ll look at which C-suites have effectively operationalized their aspirations — because, as Laura Draucker, senior director for corporate climate action at the nonprofit Ceres, put it: “Having a goal doesn’t mean you have a plan to meet that goal.”
We’ll also ask if there are times when progress to net zero is incompatible with revenue growth, as some observers of the AI-driven boom in data centers claim. And whether a lack of clarity from regulators and others has caused corporate climate strategy to become what Bruno Sarda, a former president of CDP now with the consultancy EY, called “a fluid and confusing space.”
See our Chasing Net Zero methodology for more details on how we’ll use these and other questions, together with the best available data, to assess a company’s progress.
We’ll be aided in our endeavors by an amazing team of advisors, who will share insights and feedback to guide our work. Alongside Sarda and Draucker, the group includes Steve Smith, executive director of Oxford Net Zero and a professor at the University of Oxford, and Tensie Whelan, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business.
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