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5 keys to debunking climate fatalism

How do you know when you are about to have an encounter with a Climate Fatalist?Watch for the cues in body language — the slumped shoulders, the deep sigh as you broach the topic, the audible gasp of air leaving the body.And then the words: "It is soooo complicated. It seems so impossibly difficult to get everyone in the world — all people, all industry — to dramatically reduce their carbon emissions." Read More

How do you know when you are about to have an encounter with a Climate Fatalist?

Watch for the cues in body language — the slumped shoulders, the deep sigh as you broach the topic, the audible gasp of air leaving the body.

And then the words: “It is soooo complicated. It seems so impossibly difficult to get everyone in the world — all people, all industry — to dramatically reduce their carbon emissions.”

And if the Fatalist is unusually well informed — or a vegan — he or she might even add, for good measure, “It’s not just humans, what about cattle? What are we going to do about bovine intestine disruptions?”

That’s a cow question I am not prepared to answer in this column.

So let’s go back to people and their collective carbon footprint. How do we convince climate fatalists everywhere that we really can win this fight against climate change?

My suggestion: Simplify the solution; don’t complicate it.

Before you do, though, you need to avoid the temptation to challenge the central premise of Climate Fatalism, because the first thought to go through your head as a forward-leaning, action-oriented, thinking person (which you are, by definition, if you are reading this column on GreenBiz), when exposed to a Climate Fatalist may be, “For Chrissake, just because it is difficult, does that means we are not supposed to even try — when the future of the planet is at stake?”

Admittedly, as a society, we have come a long way down in our collective interest in serving the public good or future generations since John F. Kennedy announced his epochal moonshot objective by answering “why”:

….not because [it is] easy but because [it is] hard; because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and our skills; because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win. …

As our political gridlock does not permit for a Kennedy-esque, top-down, public-sector-led approach this time around, we will have to do this ourselves. (This is why you will see no further reference here to carbon pricing — a good idea, but I am not holding my breath).

So I answer the Climate Fatalism argument by focusing on five things which can be done and, equally important, can be articulated in less than 25 words (in case you have the good fortune to encounter a Fatalist in an elevator):

  • Install solar on every surface.
  • Decarbonize natural gas.
  • Alleviate global energy poverty the right way.
  • Electrify transportation.
  • Engage in responsible agriculture and deforestation avoidance.

Let me explain each of these.

1. Solarize every surface

Solar panels on more than 50 million American homes, 3 million flat-roofed commercial buildings and over every major parking lot, by my rough estimate, could supply about 50 percent of America’s current electricity needs; plus it could provide, in addition to massive and well-distributed domestic job creation, collateral benefits such as shading of people and buildings (thereby reducing HVAC energy consumption) and, fitted with water catchment, could avoid asphalt and pavement water runoff.

With the price of solar having dropped like a stone over the past 10 years, we can afford the modest extra it will cost us to give preference to rooftop versus ground-mounted systems. Let’s leave our pristine deserts, our grasslands, our open spaces to the native wildlife to the extent we can.

2. Decarbonize natural gas

Perhaps the most pernicious argument out there is that we are reducing the carbon intensity of our economy already, so why worry? We are winning the fight against climate change already.

Wrong! Switching from coal to natural gas is not a winning strategy. Understand the science! Do the math! Just because massive coal-to-gas switching in recent years has had a beneficial impact on national greenhouse gas emissions, it is neither a lasting improvement nor is it enough. An “all gas” future leaves climate impact well above 2 degrees C.

If natural gas is to be the bridge fuel to the future that environmentalists would love it to be, then we have to define the end of the bridge. What year will natural-gas-fired power generation have to be zero-carbon in order to remain in operation? What can we do to support the technologies already in demonstration stagethat use natural gas with no carbon emissions?

Let’s prove one or more of these technologies at scale and then ask the government to declare, under existing authorization, carbon-free combustion Best Available Control Technology for natural gas.

3. Alleviate energy poverty the right way

The 1.4 billion humans who have no reliable access to modern electricity (most of whom live in sunny sub-Sahara Africa) deserve better and, as these people represent the primary source of future global electricity demand growth, the other 6 billion of us cannot afford to ignore how they get “plugged in.” They do NOT need to build expensive coal plants and high-voltage transmission systems that scar the landscape and feed public-sector corruption.

Given the state of emerging distributed-solar technology, there is no need for these countries to mimic the industrialized world’s build-out of a centralized grid-based electric system of 100 years ago. There are new technologies and new business models, and sub-Sahara Africa is blooming with clean-energy entrepreneurs offering a zero-carbon alternative. Let’s get them financing and watch them grow.

4. Electrify transportation

Electrification is coming anyway as a result of the Silicon Valley’s current fixation with autonomous cars. Skeptical? Do we need a more persuasive proof point than the stunning pre-order success of the Tesla Model 3? Sure, Elon Musk and his company still need to actually build the Model 3 and it needs to live up to the standard set by the Model S, and the other OEMs need to redouble their efforts to keep up with the barbarian in their midst, which they surely will try to do.

All of this will happen before this decade is out, not in some ill-defined distant future. Let me say it again: the Tesla Model 3 order book is an inflection point of historical importance. The impact of the automobile on the environment and the economy cannot be underestimated. Yet, the energy side of the EV revolution remains unloved by Wall Street.

Just this month it was announced that Vision Ridge, a private-equity shop headed by EV savant Reuben Munger, was handed the keys to NRG’s multi-city, fast-charging EVGO network for less than $20 million. This represents only $0.06/share of consideration to NRG shareholders, yet the deal was widely acclaimed by NRG’s institutional investors and sell-side analysts.

For Vision Ridge, I think this will go down as one of the best VC deals done since the Dutch bought Manhattan for $26 worth of trinkets, but with a much quicker payback. The EVGO deal also represents a vivid illustration of why the best clean-energy investment opportunities these days are in private equity, not in public-company investing. (That’s why I’ve just joined Pegasus Capital Advisors, a private-equity firm with a strong focus on energy.)

5. Responsible agriculture/deforestation avoidance

I am not going to talk about this for the simple reason that I know little about the topic other than that something needs to be done in this area. As usual, I put my faith in private-sector leadership. As such, I look to Paul Polman and Unilever to lead on this one.

So that’s it. Five solutions, each easy to understand. Momentum, to differing degrees, already exists behind each. Coal barely mentioned. American-centric, to be sure. Private-sector driven. Not perfect.

Do you have a better plan, one that can be simply explained and more easily understood? If so, let me know. I would like to hear it.

In the mean time, tell your Fatalist friends not to despair. If we work together, we’ve got this.

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