Climate tech investment in 2026: bigger checks, fewer bets and the AI wave

Sightline Climate’s fifth annual Climate Tech Investment Trends Report landed last week with a clear message: Climate tech investment is maturing, consolidating and increasingly tethered to AI’s voracious appetite for power. Despite policy whiplash and market uncertainty, 2025 delivered a modest but significant rebound — $40.5 billion in worldwide venture and growth capital, up 8 percent from 2024, marking the first increase since the boom years of 2021-2022.

Overall deal count fell 18 percent while half of the top 10 deals exceeded $1 billion. In other words, investors are writing bigger checks to fewer companies, with growth-stage investment up 78 percent while seed and Series A dropped 20 percent and 7 percent, respectively. The climate tech market isn’t just recovering — it’s recalibrating around proven winners and energy security.

Flight to quality 

One significant shift in 2025 was the distribution of capital. Growth-stage investment (Series D+) spiked, with deal count up 41 percent, while Series C hit an all-time low — down 32 percent with just 45 deals completed. This isn’t just a funding gap; it’s a strategic repositioning. Investors have essentially declared winners in emerging sectors.

Looking forward to 2026, I expect the trend to continue, with the Trump administration’s “Big Beautiful Act” creating policy certainty, limited partners demanding returns and the AI buildout providing tailwinds for several climate technologies.

The AI tailwind 

The AI boom created an interesting paradox for climate tech in 2025: the sector’s biggest environmental challenge became its most powerful investment driver. Data centers consumed 78 percent of the built environment’s funding in 2025, driving investment in grid hardware, energy management software, batteries, nuclear power and next-generation geothermal. Fission and fusion funding reached all-time highs as utilities scramble to meet gigawatts of new demand projected over the next two years. As a result, clean-energy investment grew 31 percent to $14.4 billion, reaching a three-year high.

The big question for 2026 is whether this massive investment in AI is sustainable. Is it a bubble marked by excessive debt and overblown demand? I suspect the buildout will continue through 2026, although investors will demand clearer paths to monetization and watch for signs of overcapacity. 

Security over sustainability 

In 2025, the language of climate tech shifted — and I believe that’s cause for optimism. “Decarbonization” gave way to “energy security.” “Emissions reduction” became “resilience.” Rather than signaling retreat, this rebranding revealed that the market values climate solutions for cost savings and security, not just environmental impact.

The shift paid off for startups aligned with domestic manufacturing priorities. Defense applications proved particularly lucrative, with the Pentagon paying premiums for advanced batteries and grid technologies. That climate tech entrepreneurs and investors could find market validation simply by reframing their pitch demonstrates the technologies’ innate value — they were solving real-world problems all along, not just boosting environmental goals.

The liquidity crunch continues

The exit environment in 2025 remained challenging, albeit nearly flat from 2024. Exits dropped 5 percent overall, with acquisitions making up 89 percent of all exits — 191 compared to 202 in 2024. It’s still a buyer’s market, with larger companies cherry-picking smaller players for capacity and project access rather than paying premiums for innovation. Notable bankruptcies — Northvolt, Li-Cycle, Sunnova, Mosaic and Powin — served as stark reminders that capital intensity and technology risk remain unforgiving.

The silver lining? Bankruptcies fell 50 percent compared to 2024, suggesting that the weakest players have been cleared out. Investors sought “tidy acquisitions and select IPOs,” according to the Sightline report, as LPs increased pressure for liquidity.

I expect exits to tick upward in 2026 as “vintage funds” (from 2020 to 2021) push portfolio companies toward profitability rather than growth at all costs. The flight-to-quality dynamic means investors are maturing select startups toward exit rather than spreading bets, and corporations will stay acquisitive as long as ROI is significant.

The bottom line

Climate tech’s 2025 rebound reveals selective optimism tempered by reality. Investors bet big on proven technologies solving AI’s power demands, while early-stage innovators struggled. Nuclear power will continue attracting massive funding despite interconnection bottlenecks, and a warming world should drive M&A in climate adaptation technologies that assess risk and build resilience.

Corporate appetite for energy-efficient technologies remains strong despite policy blowback. Whether the AI tailwind is sustainable will help determine whether 2025’s rebound marks the beginning of climate tech’s mature growth phase or merely a temporary lift.