Plastics treaty negotiations remain unfinished. What’s next?

After five rounds of United Nations International Negotiating Committee (INC) meetings, multiple drafts, and extensive debates, a binding global treaty to end plastic pollution remains out of reach as the most recent round of negotiations in Busan, South Korea failed to achieve an agreement. The talks began Nov. 25 and ran through Dec. 1.

Since February 2022, when 175 United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA 5.2) members resolved to develop a legally binding treaty to combat plastic pollution, the process has proven complex and contentious. The current draft text of the treaty coming out of INC-5 still faces major hurdles to gain consensus.

Barriers to progress

The United Nations treaty process faces inherent challenges. The UN resolution calling for a plastics treaty set an ambitious timeline, aiming to finalize treaty language by the end of 2024 through five INC meetings. Compounding this is the UN requirement for consensus, rather than a majority vote, which has spotlighted divisions between the “High Ambition Coalition” (HAC), which includes the EU, Canada, Mexico, most of Africa and South America, and others, and the “Like-Minded Group” (LMG) (mostly oil-producing nations plus other Arab countries), the two main negotiating blocs.

While the High Ambition nations push for an all-encompassing treaty addressing the entire plastic lifecycle, the Like-Minded Group advocates limiting the focus to waste management. 

The lack of alignment among major economies, such as the U.S., China, the U.K. and Brazil, further complicates matters. These countries have adopted middle-ground positions, avoiding full alignment with either bloc, making consensus elusive.

Scope and definitions

One of the most significant disputes revolves around the treaty’s scope. High-ambition countries, supported by over 100 delegations and groups such as the World Wildlife Fund and Ellen MacArthur Foundation, demand a treaty covering the entire plastic lifecycle — from fossil fuel extraction to end-of-use. This includes not only phasing out problematic polymers and plastic products, but also limiting certain hazardous chemicals used in the production process. 

Opponents insist on a narrower focus, allowing unrestricted plastic production while emphasizing improved waste management. This fundamental disagreement has led to disputes over many of the treaty’s provisions, particularly around virgin plastic reduction. The oil producers and their allies adamantly oppose any phase-out, or even reporting requirements, for plastics production.

Financial mechanisms

Financing transitions under global agreements is notoriously difficult, and financial mechanisms for solving the plastics crisis are highly disputed. A critical unknown is how the U.S., under the incoming Trump administration, will engage in future negotiations, as this could significantly influence progress.

Future outlook

The talks in Busan ended without resolution but left room for hope. Delegates agreed to continue negotiations based on the chair’s latest draft, avoiding the need to restart from scratch. However, the gap between parties remains vast, and it is difficult to imagine a bridge to reach consensus. 

Small island nations that bear the brunt of the plastics crisis demand ambitious action to address their disproportionate exposure to plastic pollution. Petro-states such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, are banking on the income from fossil fuel extraction for plastic production to maintain their economies as oil demand declines. Reconciling these two polarized positions feels impossible at the moment. 

Potential Paths Forward

A rumored “coalition of the willing” could see the higher ambition nations bypass the UN process to form their own agreement. The countries in this coalition include a total of 94 that were represented by Mexico at the closing plenary in Busan. Historical precedents, such as the 1997 Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel landmines, demonstrate the viability of such coalitions, but this approach would introduce new challenges and the risk of fragmenting global efforts.

For now, the timeline and location for the next INC meeting remain uncertain. Bridging the divide will require significant compromise and innovation to address the escalating plastic pollution crisis effectively. The stakes are high, and the urgency to act grows with every delay.

[Join the community transforming how we make, sell, and circulate products at Circularity, April 29-May 1, Denver, CO.]